The resolution of the Bitcoin proefneming – Mike’s blog
I’ve spent more than Five years being a Bitcoin developer. The software I’ve written has bot used by millions of users, hundreds of developers, and the talks I’ve given have led directly to the creation of several startups. I’ve talked about Bitcoin on Sky TV and Big black cock News. I have bot repeatedly cited by the Economist spil a Bitcoin experienced and vooraanstaand developer. I have explained Bitcoin to the SEC, to bankers and to ordinary people I met at cafes.
From the commence, I’ve always said the same thing: Bitcoin is an proef and like all experiments, it can fail. So don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose. I’ve said this te interviews, on stage at conferences, and overheen email. So have other well known developers like Gavin Andresen and Jeff Garzik.
But despite knowing that Bitcoin could fail all along, the now inescapable conclusion that it has failed still saddens mij greatly. The fundamentals are cracked and whatever happens to the price ter the brief term, the long term trend should most likely be downwards. I will no longer be taking part te Bitcoin development and have sold all my coins.
Why has Bitcoin failed? It has failed because the community has failed. What wasgoed meant to be a fresh, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically significant institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system entirely managed by just a handful of people. Worse still, the network is on the brink of technical collapse. The mechanisms that should have prevented this outcome have violated down, and spil a result there’s no longer much reason to think Bitcoin can actually be better than the existing financial system.
Think about it. If you had never heard about Bitcoin before, would you care about a payments network that:
- Couldn’t budge your existing money
- Had insanely unpredictable fees that were high and rising prompt
- Permitted buyers to take back payments they’d made after walking out of shops, by simply pressing a button (if you aren’t aware of this “feature” that’s because Bitcoin wasgoed only just switched to permit it)
- Is suffering large backlogs and flaky payments
- … which is managed by China
- … and ter which the companies and people building it were ter open civil war?
I’m going to hazard a guess that the reaction is no.
Deadlock on the blocks
Ter case you haven’t bot keeping up with Bitcoin, here is how the network looks spil of January 2016.
The block chain is utter. You may wonder how it is possible for what is essentially a series of files to be “full”. The reaction is that an entirely artificial capacity cap of one megabyte vanaf block, waterput te place spil a makeshift kludge a long time ago, has not bot liquidated and spil a result the network’s capacity is now almost totally tired.
Here’s a graph of block sizes.
The peak level ter July wasgoed reached during a denial-of-service attack te which someone flooded the network with transactions te an attempt to pauze things, calling it a “stress test”. So that level, about 700 kilobytes of transactions (or less than Three payments vanaf 2nd), is very likely about the limit of what Bitcoin can actually achieve te practice
NB: You may have read that the limit is 7 payments vanaf 2nd. That’s an old figure from 2011 and Bitcoin transactions got a lotsbestemming more complicated since then, so the true figure is a loterijlot lower.
The reason the true limit seems to be 700 kilobytes instead of the theoretical 1000 is that sometimes miners produce blocks smaller than permitted and even empty blocks, despite that there are lots of transactions waiting to confirm — this seems to be most frequently caused by interference from the Chinese “Great Firewall” censorship system. More on that te a 2nd.
If you look closely, you can see that traffic has bot growing since the end of the 2015 summer months. This is expected. I wrote about Bitcoin’s seasonal growth patterns back ter March.
Here’s weekly average block sizes:
So the average is almost at the peak of what can be done. Not remarkably then, there are frequent periods te which Bitcoin can’t keep up with the transaction blast being placed upon it and almost all blocks are the maximum size, even when there is a long queue of transactions waiting. You can see this te the size katern (the 750kb blocks come from miners that haven’t decently adjusted their software):
When networks run out of capacity, they get indeed unreliable. That’s why so many online attacks are based around simply flooding a target rekentuig with traffic. Sure enough, just before Christmas payments began to become unreliable and at peak times backlogs are now becoming common.
Some customers contacted Chris earlier today asking why our bitcoin payouts didn’t execute … The punt is that it’s now officially unlikely to depend upon the bitcoin network anymore to know when or if your payment will be transacted, because the congestion is so bad that even minor spikes te volume create dramatic switches te network conditions. To whom is it acceptable that one could wait either 60 minutes or 14 hours, chosen at random? It’s ludicrous that people are actually writing posts on reddit claiming that there is no laagconjunctuur. People were criticizing my postbode yesterday on the grounds that I somehow overstated the seriousness of the situation. Do thesis people actually use the bitcoin network to send money everyday?
ProHashing encountered another near-miss inbetween Christmas and Fresh Year, this time because a payment from an exchange to their wallet wasgoed delayed.
Bitcoin is supposed to react to this situation with automatic toverfee rises to attempt and get rid of some users, and albeit the mechanisms behind it are hardly functional that’s still sort of happening: it is rapidly becoming more and more expensive to use the Bitcoin network. Once upon a time, Bitcoin had the killer advantage of low and even zero fees, but it’s now common to be asked to pay more to miners than a credit card would charge.
Why has the capacity limit not bot raised? Because the block chain is managed by Chinese miners, just two of whom control more than 50% of the hash power. At a latest conference overheen 95% of hashing power wasgoed managed by a handful of guys sitting on a single stage. The miners are not permitting the block chain to grow.
Why are they not permitting it to grow? Several reasons. One is that the developers of the “Bitcoin Core” software that they run have refused to implement the necessary switches. Another is that the miners turn down to switch to any contesting product, spil they perceive doing so spil “disloyalty” —and they’re appalled of doing anything that might make the news spil a “split” and cause investor scare. They have chosen instead to disregard the problem and hope it goes away.
And the final reason is that the Chinese internet is so violated by their government’s firewall that moving gegevens across the border slightly works at all, with speeds routinely worse than what mobile phones provide. Imagine an entire country connected to the surplus of the world by cheap hotel wifi, and you’ve got the picture. Right now, the Chinese miners are able to — just about — maintain their connection to the global internet and optie the 25 BTC prize ($11,000) that each block they create gives them. But if the Bitcoin network got more popular, they fear taking part would get too difficult and they’d lose their income stream. This gives them a perverse financial incentive to actually attempt and zekering Bitcoin becoming popular.
Many Bitcoin users and observers have bot assuming up until very recently that somehow thesis problems would all sort themselves out, and of course the block chain size limit would be raised. After all, why would the Bitcoin community … the community that has championed the block chain spil the future of finance … deliberately kill itself by strangling the chain te its crib? But that’s exactly what is happening.
The resulting civil war has seen Coinbase — the largest and best known Bitcoin startup te the USA — be erased from the official Bitcoin webstek for picking the “wrong” side and banned from the community forums. When parts of the community are perversely turning on the people that have introduced millions of users to the currency, you know things have got indeed crazy.
Nobody knows what’s going on
If you haven’t heard much about this, you aren’t alone. One of the most disturbing things that took place overheen the course of 2015 is that the flow of information to investors and users has dried up.
Ter the span of only about eight months, Bitcoin has gone from being a semitransparent and open community to one that is predominated by rampant censorship and attacks on bitcoiners by other bitcoiners. This transformation is by far the most appalling thing I have everzwijn seen, and the result is that I no longer feel comfy being associated with the Bitcoin community.
Bitcoin is not intended to be an investment and has always bot advertised pretty accurately: spil an experimental currency which you shouldn’t buy more of than you can afford to lose. It is ingewikkeld, but that never worried mij because all the information an investor might want wasgoed out there, and there’s an entire cottage industry of books, conferences, movies and websites to help people make sense of it all.
That has now switched.
Most people who own Bitcoin learn about it through the mainstream media. Whenever a story goes mainstream the Bitcoin price goes crazy, then the media report on the price rises and a bubble happens.
Stories about Bitcoin reach newspapers and magazines through a elementary process: the news starts ter a community forum, then it’s picked up by a more specialised community/tech news webstek, then journalists at general media outlets see the story on those sites and write their own versions. I’ve seen this toebijten overheen and overheen again, and frequently taken part ter it by discussing stories with journalists.
Te August 2015 it became clear that due to severe mismanagement, the “Bitcoin Core” project that maintains the program that runs the peer-to-peer network wasn’t going to release a version that raised the block size limit. The reasons for this are complicated and discussed below. But obviously, the community needed the capability to keep adding fresh users. So some long-term developers (including mij) got together and developed the necessary code to raise the limit. That code wasgoed called BIP 101 and wij released it te a modified version of the software that wij branded Bitcoin XT. By running XT, miners could personages a vote for switching the limit. Once 75% of blocks were voting for the switch the rules would be adjusted and fatter blocks would be permitted.
The release of Bitcoin XT somehow shoved powerful emotional buttons ter a petite number of people. One of them wasgoed a man who is the admin of the bitcoin.org webstek and top discussion forums. He had frequently permitted discussion of outright criminal activity on the forums he managed, on the grounds of freedom of speech. But when XT launched, he made a surprising decision. XT, he claimed, did not represent the “developer consensus” and wasgoed therefore not truly Bitcoin. Voting wasgoed an abomination, he said, because:
“One of the excellent things about Bitcoin is its lack of democracy”
So he determined to do whatever it took to kill XT totally, kicking off with censorship of Bitcoin’s primary communication channels: any postbode that mentioned the words “Bitcoin XT” wasgoed erased from the discussion forums he managed, XT could not be mentioned or linked to from anywhere on the official bitcoin.org webstek and, of course, anyone attempting to point users to other uncensored forums wasgoed also banned. Massive numbers of users were expelled from the forums and prevented from voicing their views.
Eventually, some users found their way to a fresh uncensored forum. Reading it is a sad thing. Every day for months I have seen furious, angry posts wegmarkering against the censors, vowing that they will be defeated.
But the inability to get news about XT or the censorship itself through to users has some problematic effects.
For the very first time, investors have no visible way to get a clear picture of what’s going on. Dissenting views are being systematically suppressed. Technical criticisms of what Bitcoin Core is doing are being banned, with misleading nonsense being peddled te its place. And it’s clear that many people who casually bought into Bitcoin during one of its hype cycles have no idea that the system is about to succesnummer an artificial limit.
This worries mij a superb overeenkomst. Overheen the years governments have passed a large number of laws around securities and investments. Bitcoin is not a security and I do not believe it falls under those laws, but their spirit is elementary enough: make sure investors are informed. When misinformed investors lose money, government attention frequently goes after.
Why is Bitcoin Core keeping the limit?
When Satoshi left, he passed overheen the reins of the program wij now call Bitcoin Core to Gavin Andresen, an early contributor. Gavin is a solid and experienced leader who can see the big picture. His reliable technical judgement is one of the reasons I had the confidence to abandon Google (where I had spent almost 8 years) and work on Bitcoin utter time. Only one little problem: Satoshi never actually asked Gavin if he desired the job, and ter fact he didn’t. So the very first thing Gavin did wasgoed grant four other developers access to the code spil well. Thesis developers were chosen quickly te order to ensure the project could lightly proceed if anything happened to him. They were, essentially, whoever wasgoed around and making themselves useful at the time.
One of them, Gregory Maxwell, had an unusual set of views: he once claimed he had mathematically proven Bitcoin to be unlikely. More problematically, he did not believe te Satoshi’s original vision.
When the project wasgoed very first announced, Satoshi wasgoed asked how a block chain could scale to a large number of payments. Surely the amount of gegevens to download would become tremendous if the idea took off? This wasgoed a popular criticism of Bitcoin te the early days and Satoshi fully expected to be asked about it. He said:
The bandwidth might not be spil prohibitive spil you think … if the network were to get [spil big spil VISA], it would take several years, and by then, sending [the omschrijving of] Two HD movies overheen the Internet would very likely not seem like a big overeenkomst.
It’s a ordinary argument: look at what existing payment networks treat, look at what it’d take for Bitcoin to do the same, and then point out that growth doesn’t toebijten overnight. The networks and computers of the future will be better than today. And indeed back-of-the-envelope calculations suggested that, spil he said to mij, “it never indeed hits a scale ceiling” even when looking at more factors than just bandwidth.
Maxwell did not agree with this line of thinking. From an vraaggesprek te December 2014:
Problems with decentralization spil bitcoin grows are not going to diminish either, according to Maxwell: “There’s an inherent tradeoff inbetween scale and decentralization when you talk about transactions on the network.” The problem, he said, is that spil bitcoin transaction volume increases, larger companies will likely be the only ones running bitcoin knots because of the inherent cost.
The idea that Bitcoin is inherently fated because more users means less decentralisation is a pernicious one. It overlooks the fact that despite all the hype, real usage is low, growing leisurely and technology gets better overheen time. It is a belief Gavin and I have spent much time debunking. And it leads to an evident but crazy conclusion: if decentralisation is what makes Bitcoin good, and growth menaces decentralisation, then Bitcoin should not be permitted to grow.
Instead, Maxwell concluded, Bitcoin should become a sort of settlement layer for some vaguely defined, spil yet un-created non-blockchain based system.
The death spiral commences
Te a company, someone who did not share the goals of the organisation would be dealt with te a elementary way: by firing him.
But Bitcoin Core is an open source project, not a company. Once the Five developers with commit access to the code had bot chosen and Gavin had determined he did not want to be the leader, there wasgoed no proces ter place to everzwijn eliminate one. And there wasgoed no vraaggesprek or screening process to ensure they actually agreed with the project’s goals.
Spil Bitcoin became more popular and traffic began approaching the 1mb limit, the topic of raising the block size limit wasgoed at times brought up inbetween the developers. But it quickly became an emotionally charged subject. Accusations were thrown around that raising the limit wasgoed too risky, that it wasgoed against decentralisation, and so on. Like many puny groups, people choose to avoid conflict. The can wasgoed kicked down the road.
Complicating things further, Maxwell founded a company that then hired several other developers. Not remarkably, their views then commenced to switch to align with that of their fresh boss.
Co-ordinating software upgrades takes time, and so ter May 2015 Gavin determined the subject voorwaarde be tackled once and for all, whilst there wasgoed still about 8 months remaining. He began writing articles that worked through the arguments against raising the limit, one at a time.
But it quickly became apparent that the Bitcoin Core developers were hopelessly at loggerheads. Maxwell and the developers he had hired refused to contemplate any increase ter the limit whatsoever. They were scarcely even willing to talk about the kwestie. They insisted that nothing be done without “consensus”. And the developer who wasgoed responsible for making the releases wasgoed so afraid of conflict that he determined any controversial topic te which one side might “win” simply could not be touched at all, and refused to get involved.
Thus despite the fact that exchanges, users, wallet developers, and miners were all expecting a rise, and indeed, had bot building entire businesses around the assumption that it would toebijten, Three of the Five developers refused to touch the limit.
Meantime, the clock wasgoed ticking.
Massive DDoS attacks on XT users
Despite the news blockade, within a few days of launching Bitcoin XT around 15% of all network knots were running it, and at least one mining pool had commenced suggesting BIP101 voting to miners.
That’s when the denial of service attacks commenced. The attacks were so large that they disconnected entire regions from the internet:
“I wasgoed DDos’d. It wasgoed a massive DDoS that took down my entire (rural) ISP. Everyone ter five towns lost their internet service for several hours last summer because of thesis criminals. It undoubtedly discouraged mij from hosting knots.”
Ter other cases, entire datacenters were disconnected from the internet until the single XT knot inwards them wasgoed stopped. About a third of the knots were attacked and eliminated from the internet te this way.
Worse, the mining pool that had bot suggesting BIP101 wasgoed also attacked and compelled to zekering. The message wasgoed clear: anyone who supported fatter blocks, or even permitted other people to vote for them, would be assaulted.
The attackers are still out there. When Coinbase, months after the launch, announced they had ultimately lost patience with Core and would run XT, they too were coerced offline for a while.
Despite the DoS attacks and censorship, XT wasgoed gaining momentum. That posed a threat to Core, so a few of its developers determined to organise a series of conferences named “Scaling Bitcoin”: one ter August and one te December. The objective, it wasgoed claimed, wasgoed to reach “consensus” on what should be done. Everyone likes a overeenstemming of experts, don’t they?
It wasgoed instantaneously clear to mij that people who refused to even talk about raising the limit would not have a switch of heart because they attended a conference, and moreover, with the embark of the winter growth season there remained only a few months to get the network upgraded. Wasting those precious months waiting for conferences would waterput the stability of the entire network at risk. The fact that the very first conference actually banned discussion of concrete proposals didn’t help.
Unluckily, this tactic wasgoed devastatingly effective. The community fell for it totally. When talking to miners and startups, “we are waiting for Core to raise the limit te December” wasgoed one of the most commonly cited reasons for refusing to run XT. They were horrified of any media stories about a community split that might hurt the Bitcoin price and thus, their earnings.
Now the last conference has come and gone with no project to raise the limit, some companies (like Coinbase and BTCC) have woken up to the fact that they got played. But too late. Whilst the community wasgoed waiting, organic growth added another 100,000 transactions vanaf day.
Jeff Garzik and Gavin Andresen, the two of five Bitcoin Core committers who support a block size increase (and the two who have bot around the longest), both have a stellar reputation within the community. They recently wrote a snaak article titled “Bitcoin is Being Hot-Wired for Settlement”.
Jeff and Gavin are generally softer te their treatment than I am. I’m more of a tell-it-like-I-see-it kinda boy, or spil Gavin has mildly waterput it, “honest to a fault”. So the strong language te their snaak letterteken is unusual. They don’t pull any punches:
The proposed roadmap presently being discussed te the bitcoin community has some good points ter that it does have a project to accommodate more transactions, but it fails to speak plainly to bitcoin users and acknowledge key downsides. Core block size does not switch, there has bot zero compromise on that punt. Ter an optimal, semitransparent, open source environment, a BIP would be produced … this has not happened One of the explicit goals of the Scaling Bitcoin workshops wasgoed to funnel the chaotic core block size debate into an orderly decision making process. That did not occur. Te hindsight, Scaling Bitcoin stalled a block size decision while transaction toverfee price and block space pressure proceed to increase.
Failing to speak plainly, spil they waterput it, has become more and more common. Spil an example, the project Gavin and Jeff refer to wasgoed announced at the “Scaling Bitcoin” conferences but doesn’t involve making anything more efficient, and manages an anemic 60% capacity increase only through an accounting trick (not counting some of the bytes ter each transaction). It requires making big switches to almost every lump of Bitcoin-related software. Instead of doing a ordinary thing and raising the limit, it chooses to do an exceptionally complicated thing that might buy months at most, assuming a thick coordinated effort.
Substitute by toverfee
One problem with using fees to control congestion is that the toverfee to get to the vooraanzicht of the queue might switch after you made a payment. Bitcoin Core has a brilliant solution to this problem — permit people to mark their payments spil changeable after they’ve bot sent, up until they show up te the block chain. The stated intention is to let people adjust the toverfee paid, but te fact their switch also permits people to switch the payment to point back to themselves, thus reversing it.
At a stroke, this makes using Bitcoin futile for actually buying things, spil you’d have to wait for a buyer’s transaction to emerge ter the block chain … which from now on can take hours rather than minutes, due to the congestion.
Core’s reasoning for why this is OK goes like this: it’s no big loss because if you hadn’t bot waiting for a block before, there wasgoed a theoretical risk of payment fraud, which means you weren’t using Bitcoin decently. Thus, making that risk a 100% certainty doesn’t indeed switch anything.
Ter other words, they don’t recognise that risk management exists and so perceive this switch spil zero cost.
This protocol switch will be released with the next version of Core (0.12), so will activate when the miners upgrade. It wasgoed massively condemned by the entire Bitcoin community but the remaining Bitcoin Core developers don’t care what other people think, so the switch will toebijten.
If that didn’t woo you Bitcoin has serious problems, nothing will. How many people would think bitcoins are worth hundreds of dollars each when you soon won’t be able to use them te actual shops?
Bitcoin has entered exceptionally dangerous waters. Previous crises, like the bankruptcy of Mt Gox, were all to do with the services and companies that sprung up around the ecosystem. But this one is different: it is a depressie of the core system, the block chain itself.
More fundamentally, it is a laagconjunctuur that reflects deep philosophical differences te how people view the world: either spil one that should be ruled by a “consensus of experts”, or through ordinary people picking whatever policies make sense to them.
Even if a fresh team wasgoed built to substitute Bitcoin Core, the problem of mining power being concentrated behind the Superb Firewall would remain. Bitcoin has no future whilst it’s managed by fewer than Ten people. And there’s no solution ter look for this problem: nobody even has any suggestions. For a community that has always worried about the block chain being taken overheen by an oppressive government, it is a rich irony.
Still, all is not yet lost. Despite everything that has happened, te the past few weeks more members of the community have embarked picking things up from where I am putting them down. Where making an alternative to Core wasgoed once seen spil renegade, there are now two more forks vying for attention (Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Unlimited). So far they’ve kasstuk the same problems spil XT but it’s possible a fresh set of faces could find a way to make progress.
There are many talented and vigorous people working te the Bitcoin space, and te the past five years I’ve had the pleasure of getting to know many of them. Their entrepreneurial spirit and alternative perspectives on money, economics and politics were fascinating to practice, and despite how it’s all gone down I don’t regret my time with the project. I woke up this morning to find people wishing mij well te the uncensored forum and asking mij to stay, but I’m afraid I’ve moved on to other things. To those people I say: good luck, stay strong, and I wish you the best.